S4 Sustainment Running Estimate

Facts, assumptions, sustainment status, and the supportability judgment, continuously updated. Paragraph 4 starts here.

SUPPORTABLE WITH RISK
5
Units reporting
Red
Worst commodity posture
1
Red or Black cells
2.1
Lowest days of supply
80%
OR rate
2
NMC lines
3
Open movements
1
In transit
Facts and Assumptions

Facts

  • BLU_02 Class III(B) is at 2.1 days of supply (LOGSTAT 2026-06-10); the supporting fuel point (SP_002) is operating at half issue capacity.
  • One of three bulk fuel tankers supporting the cavalry squadron is NMC (MR_007), ECD 2026-06-13, reducing line haul lift by one third.

Assumptions

  • MSR AMBER remains trafficable and open to military movement through the assessment window; no route restrictions are imposed by host-nation authorities.
  • Theater Class IX push arrives at BSA Poznan NLT 2026-06-15, restoring pacing-item parts stockage before the next gunnery rotation.
Conclusions and Recommendations
AMBERCell Lead · as of 2026-06-08

Sustainment posture supportable with risk. Class III(B) at 2.1 days of supply for the cavalry squadron; one line haul on MSR AMBER pending escort. Maintenance OR rate 80 percent.

Linked: MOV_003

This line rolls into the S2 Update Brief as the S4 staff input.

Degraded CommoditiesLOGSTAT board →

III(B) (Fuel)

1st Combined Arms Bn (fictional) · 3.8 DOS · 71%

Amber

III(B) (Fuel)

2d Cavalry Sqdn (fictional) · 2.1 DOS · 38%

Red

III(B) (Fuel)

Forward Support Co (fictional) · 4.4 DOS · 76%

Amber

III(B) (Fuel)

Battle Group East (fictional) · 3.4 DOS · 66%

Amber

V (Ammunition)

3d Infantry Bn (fictional) · 3.5 DOS · 68%

Amber

IX (Repair Parts)

1st Combined Arms Bn (fictional) · 4.0 DOS · 64%

Amber

IX (Repair Parts)

2d Cavalry Sqdn (fictional) · 3.2 DOS · 57%

Amber

IX (Repair Parts)

Battle Group East (fictional) · 3.1 DOS · 59%

Amber
Movements In WorkMovement board →

Class V resupply, gunnery tables

ASR COPPER · window 2026-06-10 · escort req

In Transit

Bulk fuel line haul to cavalry screen

MSR AMBER · window 2026-06-11 · escort req

Validated

Class V push, STX lanes

ASR COPPER · window 2026-06-12 · escort req

Scheduled

Backhaul: retrograde repair parts

MSR AMBER · window 2026-06-13

Submitted
Deadline Report

Fuel tanker T9 (fictional)

NMC

2d Cavalry Sqdn (fictional) · Pump module inoperative. · ECD 2026-06-13

Tracked carrier A22 (fictional)

NMC

1st Combined Arms Bn (fictional) · Final drive failure, left side. · ECD 2026-06-18

Wheeled recon vehicle R7 (fictional)

PMC

2d Cavalry Sqdn (fictional) · Thermal sight intermittent. · ECD 2026-06-14

Tracked sample: 10 lines, OR rate 80 percent. Full fleet view is second wave.